文｜秦培景 裘翔 杨帆 程强 李世豪  　　杨家骥 崔嵘 联系人：徐广鸿一系列政策合力起效后，后续政策仍有加码空间，国内经济拐点逐渐明确，并将得到数据不断验证；外部强美元的扰动已趋弱，人民币汇率的预期已趋稳，市场反应也已钝化；市场成交快速缩量预示着卖盘消化已近尾声，市场底部正在夯实，长假前后是重要的布局时点，建议坚持顺周期、科技、白马三阶段策略布局。🐒首先，已落地的一系列政策合力起效下，国内经济修复的拐点将不断得到数据验证，且后续政策仍有发力空间，直到彻底扭转经济走弱和预期转弱的趋势，其拐点逐步明确将奠定市场信心稳步修复的基础。其次，美债供需格局恶化推升美国长端利率，美股易跌难涨，美元指数走强但人民币汇率预期依然稳定，A股对外部扰动的反应也已钝化，且中美成立经济领域工作组也将有助于提振经济和市场信心。最后，长假前市场成交量快速萎缩，各类资金卖盘消化接近尾声，场内外资金在数据验证期保持观望，随着节后数据集中披露，入场意愿将明显增强，当前市场底部正在夯实。数据与政策将彻底扭转经济走弱和预期转弱的趋势，国内经济拐点逐渐明确1）一系列政策合力起效后，国内经济拐点逐渐明确，并将得到数据不断验证。首先，9月上中旬以来大部分经济高频数据相比8月都有改善，其中工业生产复苏，PTA、汽车钢胎、PVC等重点行业开工率回升，南华工业品价格指数已修复至去年6月高点；货运物流小幅改善，汽车销售情况较好。其次，地产政策继续有序放松，9月以来已有12个城市取消限购，值得关注的是，9月20日一线城市广州也将原本限购区域从9个调整为6个。根据中信证券研究部地产组对重点城市的跟踪数据，一线城市二手房成交回暖在9月基本确立，随着政策推进，预计一二线城市的销售均价有望在四季度环比止跌，全国商品房销售情况预计在年内逐渐走向复苏。最后，预计9月国内经济运行状况较8月进一步边际改善，三季度GDP同比增速有望达到4.5%以上，高于当下市场一致预期的4.2%，而四季度GDP同比增速大概率高于三季度。数据将明确经济修复的趋势和斜率，明确经济运行拐点，托底二季度以来下行的经济预期，奠定市场信心稳步修复的基础。2）后续政策仍有发力空间，直到彻底扭转经济走弱和预期转弱的趋势。除了房地产外，近期市场重点关注的政策主要在城中村建设和化债落地两个领域。首先，在城中村改造、央行设置SPV等政策过程中可重点关注资金来源方式，其中中央财政发力力度决定了整个政策组合拳的高度，9月15日财政部宣布在计划外新发一期5年期附息国债，我们判断其发行节奏提升是为了加快净融资进度，支持财政政策发力，预计后续财政支出节奏也会加快。其次，城中村和保障房政策的落地进度虽慢于预期，但预计整体力度不会弱于预期，以前者为例，根据中信证券研究部地产组测算，19个超大特大城市城中村改造后预计能够带来的年化新增商品房货值1.9万亿元，占这些城市2022年销售额的37%，且预计城中村改造支持的金融工具有望推出。最后，9月22日新华社报道，中美双方商定成立经济领域工作组，包括“经济工作组”和“金融工作组”，两个工作组将定期、不定期举行会议加强沟通和交流，这也有利于修复市场情绪，降低未来中美博弈的不确定性。外部强美元扰动下人民币汇率预期依然稳定，A股市场的反应也已钝化1）美债供需格局恶化推升美国长端利率，美股易跌难涨。首先，最新的议息会议上美联储维持利率不变，符合市场预期，鲍威尔讲话总体中性，注重平衡市场预期，且年内加息终点利率仍为5.6%，但相比6月议息会议上调了明后年利率目标水平，表明利率将在高位停留更长时间。其次，我们维持此前判断，美联储后续行为依然高度依赖经济数据，11月不加息的概率较大，但首次降息或延后至明年下半年。再次，主要受供需格局恶化的影响，本周内10年期美债收益率上行至4.44%，美债大量发行叠加美联储依旧激进的缩表，美债供大于求难缓解，预计年内10年期美债收益率将稳定在4%以上高位运行。最后，利率高位压制和美股高度分化的表现下，当前美股超大盘科技蓝筹的估值依旧过高，而5月以来纳指的ERP已经转负，美股易跌难涨，外部货币金融环境扰动因素仍在。2）美元指数走强下人民币汇率预期依然稳定，A股对外部扰动反应已钝化。首先，央行7月以来多次表态人民币汇率没有偏离基本面，近期还强调需更加关注人民币对一篮子货币汇率的变化，事实上，截至9月15日，中国外汇交易中心人民币汇率指数报98.5，较6月末升值1.8%。其次，预计人民银行将用好各种工具，对市场顺周期、单边行为进行纠偏，坚决防范汇率超调风险，从前期调整逆周期调节因子，到调降外汇存款准备金率，都释放出监管积极维护汇率稳定的信号和决心。再次，本周美元指数已爬升105.6，但在央行的预期管理下，人民币贬值的空间不大，近期无论是在岸还是离岸人民币汇率，在7.3左右预期企稳特征明显。最后，美元加息预期波动，美债收益率高位和美股回调等外部扰动因素预计短期仍有扰动，但人民币汇率预期已稳定，且A股的反应也已钝化。成交量快速萎缩至年内低位卖盘消化已近尾声，市场底部正在夯实1）市场成交持续缩量，市场交投与估值处于低位。过去四周沪深两市的日均成交额分别为9445亿元、7817亿元、7271亿元和6503亿元，持续缩量的同时，在本周缩量明显，其日均成交额创年内新低。首先，国庆长假渐近，长假前缩量是较为普遍的现象，自2019年以来，节前1周相对节前5周的日均成交额下降幅度在25~45%不等。其次，无论对于市场还是政府，前期政策及其效果已进入观察期，截至9月22日收盘，沪深300和中证500的交易热度分别回落至41度和34度。再次，各类卖盘压力消化比较充分，当前估值已处于较低分位，沪深300和中证500的动态P/E处于2010年以来33%和24%的较低分位，机构重仓股方面，北向资金和主动型公募前100大重仓股的动态P/E已分别调整到12.1X和14.1X，分别处于2010年以来22%和18%的较低分位。2）卖盘消化接近尾声，场内外资金保持观望，市场底部正在夯实。首先，根据中信证券渠道调研数据，活跃私募资金仓位依然处于66%的低位，且已经连续3周变化不大。其次，今年8月2日至9月22日，本轮北向资金净流出额已达1145亿元，超过此前任何一轮大幅流出，但从最近3周数据来看，流出速度相比8月周均200亿以上的净流出已明显放缓，本周北向资金甚至已转为0.3亿元的净流入；且本轮流出过程中，北向卖出成交占比稳定处于6~7%的水平，并不是市场资金流出的主要贡献部分。再次，两融成交占比小幅回暖，中枢抬升至8%，但仍然处于2016年以来36%的相对低分位。最后，宽基ETF申购在9月初出现波动，但9月15日以来已重回净申购，其中成长风格更受青睐，9月截至21日，科创50ETF和创业板指ETF的净申购分别为61亿元和20亿元。各类资金卖盘消化接近尾声，场内外资金在数据验证期保持观望，随着节后数据集中披露，入场意愿将明显增强，当前市场底部正在夯实。市场底部正在夯实把握当前布局时机一系列政策合力起效后，后续政策仍有加码空间，国内经济拐点逐渐明确，并将得到数据不断验证；外围强美元的扰动已趋弱，人民币汇率的预期已趋稳，市场反应也已钝化；市场成交快速缩量预示着卖盘消化已近尾声，市场底部正在夯实，长假前后是重要的布局时点。配置上，建议依次沿着政策催化受益、市场情绪回暖受益和基本面拐点确立，坚持顺周期、科技、白马三阶段策略布局。第一阶段，在政策还未充分兑现之前，积极布局直接受益于政策的顺周期行业，关注城中村改造为物业管理、家居、消费建材带来十年维度的长期成长机遇，化债推动的银行和保险的重估，以及煤炭、有色、化工等周期性行业。第二阶段，政策落地带动市场情绪恢复之后，积极布局前期跌幅较大的科技行业，自主可控方向建议密切关注半导体、AI国产化、信创的事件催化，困境反转方向关注新能源车和零部件、消费电子的产品创新和订单改善进展。第三阶段，随着实体经济进入稳态复苏区间并且外资抛售进入尾声后，外资重仓板块有望迎来业绩和估值的双重拐点，典型代表包括新能源、互联网、消费和医药当中的白马品种。风险因素中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策及经济复苏进度不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌冲突进一步升级。 .app-kaihu-qr{text-align: center;padding: 20px 0;}.app-kaihu-qr span{font-size: 18px; line-height: 31px;display: block;}.app-kaihu-qr img{width: 170px;height: 170px;display: block;margin: 0 auto;margin-top: 10px;}现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！wen wen｜qin qinpei peijing jing qiu qiuxiang xiang yang yangfan fan cheng chengqiang qiang li lishi shihao hao  　　yang yangjia jiaji ji cui cuirong rong lian lianxi xiren ren：xu xuguang guanghong hongyi yixi xilie liezheng zhengce cehe heli liqi qixiao xiaohou hou，hou houxu xuzheng zhengce cereng rengyou youjia jiama makong kongjian jian，guo guonei neijing jingji jiguai guaidian dianzhu zhujian jianming mingque que，bing bingjiang jiangde dedao daoshu shuju jubu buduan duanyan yanzheng zheng；wai waibu buqiang qiangmei meiyuan yuande derao raodong dongyi yiqu quruo ruo，ren renmin minbi bihui huilv lvde deyu yuqi qiyi yiqu quwen wen，shi shichang changfan fanying yingye yeyi yidun dunhua hua；shi shichang changcheng chengjiao jiaokuai kuaisu susuo 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chengzhong zhongcun cungai gaizao zaozhi zhichi chide dejin jinrong ronggong gongju juyou youwang wangtui tuichu chu。zui zuihou hou，9yue yue22ri rixin xinhua huashe shebao baodao dao，zhong zhongmei meishuang shuangfang fangshang shangding dingcheng chengli lijing jingji jiling lingyu yugong gongzuo zuozu zu，bao baokuo kuo“jing jingji jigong gongzuo zuozu zu”he he“jin jinrong ronggong gongzuo zuozu zu”，liang liangge gegong gongzuo zuozu zujiang jiangding dingqi qi、bu buding dingqi qiju juxing xinghui huiyi yijia jiaqiang qianggou goutong tonghe hejiao jiaoliu liu，zhe zheye yeyou youli liyu yuxiu xiufu fushi shichang changqing qingxu xu，jiang jiangdi diwei weilai laizhong zhongmei meibo boyi yide debu buque queding dingxing xing。wai waibu buqiang qiangmei meiyuan yuanrao raodong dongxia xiaren renmin minbi bihui huilv lvyu yuqi qiyi yiran ranwen wending ding，Agu gushi shichang changde defan fanying yingye yeyi yidun dunhua hua1）mei meizhai zhaigong gongxu xuge geju jue ehua huatui tuisheng shengmei meiguo guochang changduan duanli lilv lv，mei meigu guyi yidie dienan nanzhang zhang。shou shouxian xian，zui zuixin xinde deyi yixi xihui huiyi yishang shangmei meilian lianchu chuwei weichi chili lilv lvbu bubian bian，fu fuhe heshi shichang changyu yuqi qi，bao baowei weier erjiang jianghua huazong zongti tizhong zhongxing xing，zhu zhuzhong zhongping pingheng hengshi shichang changyu yuqi qi，qie qienian niannei neijia jiaxi xizhong zhongdian dianli lilv lvreng rengwei wei5.6%，dan danxiang xiangbi bi6yue yueyi yixi xihui huiyi yishang shangtiao tiaole leming minghou hounian nianli lilv lvmu mubiao biaoshui shuiping ping，biao biaoming mingli lilv lvjiang jiangzai zaigao gaowei weiting tingliu liugeng gengchang changshi shijian jian。qi qici ci，wo women menwei weichi chici ciqian qianpan panduan duan，mei meilian lianchu chuhou houxu xuxing xingwei weiyi yiran rangao gaodu duyi yilai laijing jingji jishu shuju ju，11yue yuebu bujia jiaxi xide degai gailv lvjiao jiaoda da，dan danshou shouci cijiang jiangxi xihuo huoyan yanhou houzhi zhiming mingnian nianxia xiaban bannian nian。zai zaici ci，zhu zhuyao yaoshou shougong gongxu xuge geju jue ehua huade deying yingxiang xiang，ben benzhou zhounei nei10nian nianqi qimei meizhai zhaishou shouyi yilv lvshang shangxing xingzhi zhi4.44%，mei meizhai zhaida daliang liangfa faxing xingdie diejia jiamei meilian lianchu chuyi yijiu jiuji jijin jinde desuo suobiao biao，mei meizhai zhaigong gongda dayu yuqiu qiunan nanhuan huanjie jie，yu yuji jinian niannei nei10nian nianqi qimei meizhai zhaishou shouyi yilv lvjiang jiangwen wending dingzai zai4%yi yishang shanggao gaowei weiyun yunxing xing。zui zuihou hou，li lilv lvgao gaowei weiya yazhi zhihe hemei meigu gugao gaodu dufen fenhua huade debiao biaoxian xianxia xia，dang dangqian qianmei meigu guchao chaoda dapan panke keji jilan lanchou choude degu guzhi zhiyi yijiu jiuguo guogao gao，er er5yue yueyi yilai laina nazhi zhide deERPyi yijing jingzhuan zhuanfu fu，mei meigu guyi yidie dienan nanzhang zhang，wai waibu buhuo huobi bijin jinrong ronghuan huanjing jingrao raodong dongyin yinsu sureng rengzai zai。2）mei meiyuan yuanzhi zhishu shuzou zouqiang qiangxia xiaren renmin minbi bihui huilv lvyu yuqi qiyi yiran ranwen wending ding，Agu gudui duiwai waibu burao raodong dongfan fanying yingyi yidun dunhua hua。shou shouxian xian，yang yangxing xing7yue yueyi yilai laiduo duoci cibiao biaotai tairen renmin minbi bihui huilv lvmei meiyou youpian pianli liji jiben benmian mian，jin jinqi qihai haiqiang qiangtiao tiaoxu xugeng gengjia jiaguan guanzhu zhuren renmin minbi bidui duiyi yilan lanzi zihuo huobi bihui huilv lvde debian bianhua hua，shi shishi shishang shang，jie jiezhi zhi9yue yue15ri ri，zhong zhongguo guowai waihui huijiao jiaoyi yizhong zhongxin xinren renmin minbi bihui huilv lvzhi zhishu shubao bao98.5，jiao jiao6yue yuemo mosheng shengzhi zhi1.8%。qi qici ci，yu yuji jiren renmin minyin yinxing xingjiang jiangyong yonghao haoge gezhong zhonggong gongju ju，dui duishi shichang changshun shunzhou zhouqi qi、dan danbian bianxing xingwei weijin jinxing xingjiu jiupian pian，jian jianjue juefang fangfan fanhui huilv lvchao chaotiao tiaofeng fengxian xian，cong congqian qianqi qitiao tiaozheng zhengni nizhou zhouqi qitiao tiaojie jieyin yinzi zi，dao daotiao tiaojiang jiangwai waihui huicun cunkuan kuanzhun zhunbei beijin jinlv lv，dou doushi shifang fangchu chujian jianguan guanji jiji jiwei weihu huhui huilv lvwen wending dingde dexin xinhao haohe hejue juexin xin。zai zaici ci，ben benzhou zhoumei meiyuan yuanzhi zhishu shuyi yipa pasheng sheng105.6，dan danzai zaiyang yangxing xingde deyu yuqi qiguan guanli lixia xia，ren renmin minbi bibian bianzhi zhide dekong kongjian jianbu buda da，jin jinqi qiwu wulun lunshi shizai zaian anhai haishi shili lian anren renmin minbi bihui huilv lv，zai zai7.3zuo zuoyou youyu yuqi qiqi qiwen wente tezheng zhengming mingxian xian。zui zuihou hou，mei meiyuan yuanjia jiaxi xiyu yuqi qibo bodong dong，mei meizhai zhaishou shouyi yilv lvgao gaowei weihe hemei meigu guhui huitiao tiaodeng dengwai waibu burao raodong dongyin yinsu suyu yuji jiduan duanqi qireng rengyou yourao raodong dong，dan danren renmin minbi bihui huilv lvyu yuqi qiyi yiwen wending ding，qie qieAgu gude defan fanying yingye yeyi yidun dunhua hua。cheng chengjiao jiaoliang liangkuai kuaisu suwei weisuo suozhi zhinian niannei neidi diwei weimai maipan panxiao xiaohua huayi yijin jinwei weisheng sheng，shi shichang changdi dibu buzheng zhengzai zaihang hangshi shi1）shi shichang changcheng chengjiao jiaochi chixu xusuo suoliang liang，shi shichang changjiao jiaotou touyu yugu guzhi zhichu chuyu yudi diwei wei。guo guoqu qusi sizhou zhouhu hushen shenliang liangshi shide deri rijun juncheng chengjiao jiaoe efen fenbie biewei wei9445yi yiyuan yuan、7817yi yiyuan yuan、7271yi yiyuan yuanhe he6503yi yiyuan yuan，chi chixu xusuo suoliang liangde detong tongshi shi，zai zaiben benzhou zhousuo suoliang liangming mingxian xian，qi qiri rijun juncheng chengjiao jiaoe echuang chuangnian niannei neixin xindi di。shou shouxian xian，guo guoqing qingchang changjia jiajian jianjin jin，chang changjia jiaqian qiansuo suoliang liangshi shijiao jiaowei weipu pubian biande dexian xianxiang xiang，zi zi2019nian nianyi yilai lai，jie jieqian qian1zhou zhouxiang xiangdui duijie jieqian qian5zhou zhoude deri rijun juncheng chengjiao jiaoe exia xiajiang jiangfu fudu duzai zai25~45%bu budeng deng。qi qici ci，wu wulun lundui duiyu yushi shichang changhai haishi shizheng zhengfu fu，qian qianqi qizheng zhengce ceji jiqi qixiao xiaoguo guoyi yijin jinru ruguan guancha chaqi qi，jie jiezhi zhi9yue yue22ri rishou shoupan pan，hu hushen shen300he hezhong zhongzheng zheng500de dejiao jiaoyi yire redu dufen fenbie biehui huiluo luozhi zhi41du duhe he34du du。zai zaici ci，ge gelei leimai maipan panya yali lixiao xiaohua huabi bijiao jiaochong chongfen fen，dang dangqian qiangu guzhi zhiyi yichu chuyu yujiao jiaodi difen fenwei wei，hu hushen shen300he hezhong zhongzheng zheng500de dedong dongtai taiP/Echu chuyu yu2010nian nianyi yilai lai33%he he24%de dejiao jiaodi difen fenwei wei，ji jigou gouzhong zhongcang canggu gufang fangmian mian，bei beixiang xiangzi zijin jinhe hezhu zhudong dongxing xinggong gongmu muqian qian100da dazhong zhongcang canggu gude dedong dongtai taiP/Eyi yifen fenbie bietiao tiaozheng zhengdao dao12.1Xhe he14.1X，fen fenbie biechu chuyu yu2010nian nianyi yilai lai22%he he18%de dejiao jiaodi difen fenwei wei。2）mai maipan panxiao xiaohua huajie jiejin jinwei weisheng sheng，chang changnei neiwai waizi zijin jinbao baochi chiguan guanwang wang，shi shichang changdi dibu buzheng zhengzai zaihang hangshi shi。shou shouxian xian，gen genju juzhong zhongxin xinzheng zhengquan quanqu qudao daotiao tiaoyan yanshu shuju ju，huo huoyue yuesi simu muzi zijin jincang cangwei weiyi yiran ranchu chuyu yu66%de dedi diwei wei，qie qieyi yijing jinglian lianxu xu3zhou zhoubian bianhua huabu buda da。qi qici ci，jin jinnian nian8yue yue2ri rizhi zhi9yue yue22ri ri，ben benlun lunbei beixiang xiangzi zijin jinjing jingliu liuchu chue eyi yida da1145yi yiyuan yuan，chao chaoguo guoci ciqian qianren renhe heyi yilun lunda dafu fuliu liuchu chu，dan dancong congzui zuijin jin3zhou zhoushu shuju julai laikan kan，liu liuchu chusu sudu duxiang xiangbi bi8yue yuezhou zhoujun jun200yi yiyi yishang shangde dejing jingliu liuchu chuyi yiming mingxian xianfang fanghuan huan，ben benzhou zhoubei beixiang xiangzi zijin jinshen shenzhi zhiyi yizhuan zhuanwei wei0.3yi yiyuan yuande dejing jingliu liuru ru；qie qieben benlun lunliu liuchu chuguo guocheng chengzhong zhong，bei beixiang xiangmai maichu chucheng chengjiao jiaozhan zhanbi biwen wending dingchu chuyu yu6~7%de deshui shuiping ping，bing bingbu bushi shishi shichang changzi zijin jinliu liuchu chude dezhu zhuyao yaogong gongxian xianbu bufen fen。zai zaici ci，liang liangrong rongcheng chengjiao jiaozhan zhanbi bixiao xiaofu fuhui huinuan nuan，zhong zhongshu shutai taisheng shengzhi zhi8%，dan 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changdi dibu buzheng zhengzai zaihang hangshi shiba bawo wodang dangqian qianbu buju jushi shiji jiyi yixi xilie liezheng zhengce cehe heli liqi qixiao xiaohou hou，hou houxu xuzheng zhengce cereng rengyou youjia jiama makong kongjian jian，guo guonei neijing jingji jiguai guaidian dianzhu zhujian jianming mingque que，bing bingjiang jiangde dedao daoshu shuju jubu buduan duanyan yanzheng zheng；wai waiwei weiqiang qiangmei meiyuan yuande derao raodong dongyi yiqu quruo ruo，ren renmin minbi bihui huilv lvde deyu yuqi qiyi yiqu quwen wen，shi shichang changfan fanying yingye yeyi yidun dunhua hua；shi shichang changcheng chengjiao jiaokuai kuaisu susuo suoliang liangyu yushi shizhe zhemai maipan panxiao xiaohua huayi yijin jinwei weisheng sheng，shi shichang changdi dibu buzheng zhengzai zaihang hangshi shi，chang changjia jiaqian qianhou houshi shizhong zhongyao yaode debu buju jushi shidian dian。pei peizhi zhishang shang，jian jianyi yiyi yici ciyan yanzhe zhezheng zhengce cecui cuihua huashou shouyi yi、shi shichang changqing qingxu xuhui huinuan nuanshou shouyi yihe heji jiben benmian mianguai guaidian dianque queli li，jian jianchi chishun shunzhou zhouqi qi、ke keji ji、bai baima masan sanjie jieduan duance celve lvebu buju ju。di diyi yijie jieduan duan，zai zaizheng zhengce cehai haiwei weichong chongfen fendui duixian xianzhi zhiqian qian，ji jiji jibu buju juzhi zhijie jieshou shouyi yiyu yuzheng zhengce cede deshun shunzhou zhouqi qixing xingye ye，guan guanzhu zhucheng chengzhong zhongcun cungai gaizao zaowei weiwu wuye yeguan guanli li、jia jiaju ju、xiao xiaofei feijian jiancai caidai dailai laishi shinian nianwei weidu dude dechang changqi qicheng chengchang changji jiyu yu，hua huazhai zhaitui tuidong dongde deyin yinxing xinghe hebao baoxian xiande dezhong zhonggu gu，yi yiji jimei meitan tan、you youse se、hua huagong gongdeng dengzhou zhouqi qixing xingxing xingye ye。di dier erjie jieduan duan，zheng zhengce celuo luodi didai daidong dongshi shichang changqing qingxu xuhui huifu fuzhi zhihou hou，ji jiji jibu buju juqian qianqi qidie diefu fujiao jiaoda dade deke keji jixing xingye ye，zi zizhu zhuke kekong kongfang fangxiang xiangjian jianyi yimi miqie qieguan guanzhu zhuban bandao daoti ti、AIguo guochan chanhua hua、xin xinchuang chuangde deshi shijian jiancui cuihua hua，kun kunjing jingfan fanzhuan zhuanfang fangxiang xiangguan guanzhu zhuxin xinneng nengyuan yuanche chehe heling lingbu bujian jian、xiao xiaofei feidian dianzi zide dechan chanpin pinchuang chuangxin xinhe heding dingdan dangai gaishan shanjin jinzhan zhan。di disan sanjie jieduan duan，sui suizhe zheshi shiti tijing jingji jijin jinru ruwen wentai taifu fusu suqu qujian jianbing bingqie qiewai waizi zipao paoshou shoujin jinru ruwei weisheng shenghou hou，wai waizi zizhong zhongcang cangban bankuai kuaiyou youwang wangying yinglai laiye yeji jihe hegu guzhi zhide deshuang shuangzhong zhongguai guaidian dian，dian dianxing xingdai daibiao biaobao baokuo kuoxin xinneng nengyuan yuan、hu hulian lianwang wang、xiao xiaofei feihe heyi yiyao yaodang dangzhong zhongde debai baima mapin pinzhong zhong。feng fengxian xianyin yinsu suzhong zhongmei meike keji ji、mao maoyi yi、jin jinrong rongling lingyu yumo moca cajia jiaju ju；guo guonei neizheng zhengce ceji jijing jingji jifu fusu sujin jindu dubu buji jiyu yuqi qi；hai hainei neiwai waihong hongguan guanliu liudong dongxing xingchao chaoyu yuqi qishou shoujin jin；e ewu wuchong chongtu tujin jinyi yibu busheng shengji ji。 .app-kaihu-qr{text-align: center;padding: 20px 0;}.app-kaihu-qr span{font-size: 18px; line-height: 31px;display: block;}.app-kaihu-qr img{width: 170px;height: 170px;display: block;margin: 0 auto;margin-top: 10px;}xian xianzai zaisong songnin nin60yuan yuanfu fuli lihong hongbao bao，zhi zhijie jieti tixian xianbu butao taolu lu~~~kuai kuailai laican canyu yuhuo huodong dongba ba！ 　　有观点认为，本次优化是一(yi)个好兆头，说明政策已(yi)开始关注商办市场(chang)。🗃　　华宝基金资深产(chan)品专家姜志(zhi)则谈到了中长线资金的投资偏(pian)好对市场的影响，在他(ta)看(kan)来，近期对(dui)市场(chang)影响(xiang)比较(jiao)大的就是(shi)政(zheng)策，其中一(yi)个就是关于险资的一些(xie)偿付比率(lv)的相关规定，关于优化保险公司偿付能力监管(guan)标准的一个通知。🥙　　当记者在(zai)京东APP内点击“京东(dong)基(ji)金”的入(ru)口后，便(bian)自(zi)动弹出了“新客专享3999京豆礼(li)包”的页面。🗓文wen｜秦qin培pei景jing 裘qiu翔xiang 杨yang帆fan 程cheng强qiang 李li世shi豪hao  　　杨yang家jia骥ji 崔cui嵘rong 联lian系xi人ren：徐xu广guang鸿hong一yi系xi列lie政zheng策ce合he力li起qi效xiao后hou，后hou续xu政zheng策ce仍reng有you加jia码ma空kong间jian，国guo内nei经jing济ji拐guai点dian逐zhu渐jian明ming确que，并bing将jiang得de到dao数shu据ju不bu断duan验yan证zheng；外wai部bu强qiang美mei元yuan的de扰rao动dong已yi趋qu弱ruo，人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv的de预yu期qi已yi趋qu稳wen，市shi场chang反fan应ying也ye已yi钝dun化hua；市shi场chang成cheng交jiao快kuai速su缩suo量liang预yu示shi着zhe卖mai盘pan消xiao化hua已yi近jin尾wei声sheng，市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi，长chang假jia前qian后hou是shi重zhong要yao的de布bu局ju时shi点dian，建jian议yi坚jian持chi顺shun周zhou期qi、科ke技ji、白bai马ma三san阶jie段duan策ce略lve布bu局ju。♑首shou先xian，已yi落luo地di的de一yi系xi列lie政zheng策ce合he力li起qi效xiao下xia，国guo内nei经jing济ji修xiu复fu的de拐guai点dian将jiang不bu断duan得de到dao数shu据ju验yan证zheng，且qie后hou续xu政zheng策ce仍reng有you发fa力li空kong间jian，直zhi到dao彻che底di扭niu转zhuan经jing济ji走zou弱ruo和he预yu期qi转zhuan弱ruo的de趋qu势shi，其qi拐guai点dian逐zhu步bu明ming确que将jiang奠dian定ding市shi场chang信xin心xin稳wen步bu修xiu复fu的de基ji础chu。其qi次ci，美mei债zhai供gong需xu格ge局ju恶e化hua推tui升sheng美mei国guo长chang端duan利li率lv，美mei股gu易yi跌die难nan涨zhang，美mei元yuan指zhi数shu走zou强qiang但dan人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv预yu期qi依yi然ran稳wen定ding，A股gu对dui外wai部bu扰rao动dong的de反fan应ying也ye已yi钝dun化hua，且qie中zhong美mei成cheng立li经jing济ji领ling域yu工gong作zuo组zu也ye将jiang有you助zhu于yu提ti振zhen经jing济ji和he市shi场chang信xin心xin。最zui后hou，长chang假jia前qian市shi场chang成cheng交jiao量liang快kuai速su萎wei缩suo，各ge类lei资zi金jin卖mai盘pan消xiao化hua接jie近jin尾wei声sheng，场chang内nei外wai资zi金jin在zai数shu据ju验yan证zheng期qi保bao持chi观guan望wang，随sui着zhe节jie后hou数shu据ju集ji中zhong披pi露lu，入ru场chang意yi愿yuan将jiang明ming显xian增zeng强qiang，当dang前qian市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi。数shu据ju与yu政zheng策ce将jiang彻che底di扭niu转zhuan经jing济ji走zou弱ruo和he预yu期qi转zhuan弱ruo的de趋qu势shi，国guo内nei经jing济ji拐guai点dian逐zhu渐jian明ming确que1）一yi系xi列lie政zheng策ce合he力li起qi效xiao后hou，国guo内nei经jing济ji拐guai点dian逐zhu渐jian明ming确que，并bing将jiang得de到dao数shu据ju不bu断duan验yan证zheng。首shou先xian，9月yue上shang中zhong旬xun以yi来lai大da部bu分fen经jing济ji高gao频pin数shu据ju相xiang比bi8月yue都dou有you改gai善shan，其qi中zhong工gong业ye生sheng产chan复fu苏su，PTA、汽qi车che钢gang胎tai、PVC等deng重zhong点dian行xing业ye开kai工gong率lv回hui升sheng，南nan华hua工gong业ye品pin价jia格ge指zhi数shu已yi修xiu复fu至zhi去qu年nian6月yue高gao点dian；货huo运yun物wu流liu小xiao幅fu改gai善shan，汽qi车che销xiao售shou情qing况kuang较jiao好hao。其qi次ci，地di产chan政zheng策ce继ji续xu有you序xu放fang松song，9月yue以yi来lai已yi有you12个ge城cheng市shi取qu消xiao限xian购gou，值zhi得de关guan注zhu的de是shi，9月yue20日ri一yi线xian城cheng市shi广guang州zhou也ye将jiang原yuan本ben限xian购gou区qu域yu从cong9个ge调tiao整zheng为wei6个ge。根gen据ju中zhong信xin证zheng券quan研yan究jiu部bu地di产chan组zu对dui重zhong点dian城cheng市shi的de跟gen踪zong数shu据ju，一yi线xian城cheng市shi二er手shou房fang成cheng交jiao回hui暖nuan在zai9月yue基ji本ben确que立li，随sui着zhe政zheng策ce推tui进jin，预yu计ji一yi二er线xian城cheng市shi的de销xiao售shou均jun价jia有you望wang在zai四si季ji度du环huan比bi止zhi跌die，全quan国guo商shang品pin房fang销xiao售shou情qing况kuang预yu计ji在zai年nian内nei逐zhu渐jian走zou向xiang复fu苏su。最zui后hou，预yu计ji9月yue国guo内nei经jing济ji运yun行xing状zhuang况kuang较jiao8月yue进jin一yi步bu边bian际ji改gai善shan，三san季ji度duGDP同tong比bi增zeng速su有you望wang达da到dao4.5%以yi上shang，高gao于yu当dang下xia市shi场chang一yi致zhi预yu期qi的de4.2%，而er四si季ji度duGDP同tong比bi增zeng速su大da概gai率lv高gao于yu三san季ji度du。数shu据ju将jiang明ming确que经jing济ji修xiu复fu的de趋qu势shi和he斜xie率lv，明ming确que经jing济ji运yun行xing拐guai点dian，托tuo底di二er季ji度du以yi来lai下xia行xing的de经jing济ji预yu期qi，奠dian定ding市shi场chang信xin心xin稳wen步bu修xiu复fu的de基ji础chu。2）后hou续xu政zheng策ce仍reng有you发fa力li空kong间jian，直zhi到dao彻che底di扭niu转zhuan经jing济ji走zou弱ruo和he预yu期qi转zhuan弱ruo的de趋qu势shi。除chu了le房fang地di产chan外wai，近jin期qi市shi场chang重zhong点dian关guan注zhu的de政zheng策ce主zhu要yao在zai城cheng中zhong村cun建jian设she和he化hua债zhai落luo地di两liang个ge领ling域yu。首shou先xian，在zai城cheng中zhong村cun改gai造zao、央yang行xing设she置zhiSPV等deng政zheng策ce过guo程cheng中zhong可ke重zhong点dian关guan注zhu资zi金jin来lai源yuan方fang式shi，其qi中zhong中zhong央yang财cai政zheng发fa力li力li度du决jue定ding了le整zheng个ge政zheng策ce组zu合he拳quan的de高gao度du，9月yue15日ri财cai政zheng部bu宣xuan布bu在zai计ji划hua外wai新xin发fa一yi期qi5年nian期qi附fu息xi国guo债zhai，我wo们men判pan断duan其qi发fa行xing节jie奏zou提ti升sheng是shi为wei了le加jia快kuai净jing融rong资zi进jin度du，支zhi持chi财cai政zheng政zheng策ce发fa力li，预yu计ji后hou续xu财cai政zheng支zhi出chu节jie奏zou也ye会hui加jia快kuai。其qi次ci，城cheng中zhong村cun和he保bao障zhang房fang政zheng策ce的de落luo地di进jin度du虽sui慢man于yu预yu期qi，但dan预yu计ji整zheng体ti力li度du不bu会hui弱ruo于yu预yu期qi，以yi前qian者zhe为wei例li，根gen据ju中zhong信xin证zheng券quan研yan究jiu部bu地di产chan组zu测ce算suan，19个ge超chao大da特te大da城cheng市shi城cheng中zhong村cun改gai造zao后hou预yu计ji能neng够gou带dai来lai的de年nian化hua新xin增zeng商shang品pin房fang货huo值zhi1.9万wan亿yi元yuan，占zhan这zhe些xie城cheng市shi2022年nian销xiao售shou额e的de37%，且qie预yu计ji城cheng中zhong村cun改gai造zao支zhi持chi的de金jin融rong工gong具ju有you望wang推tui出chu。最zui后hou，9月yue22日ri新xin华hua社she报bao道dao，中zhong美mei双shuang方fang商shang定ding成cheng立li经jing济ji领ling域yu工gong作zuo组zu，包bao括kuo“经jing济ji工gong作zuo组zu”和he“金jin融rong工gong作zuo组zu”，两liang个ge工gong作zuo组zu将jiang定ding期qi、不bu定ding期qi举ju行xing会hui议yi加jia强qiang沟gou通tong和he交jiao流liu，这zhe也ye有you利li于yu修xiu复fu市shi场chang情qing绪xu，降jiang低di未wei来lai中zhong美mei博bo弈yi的de不bu确que定ding性xing。外wai部bu强qiang美mei元yuan扰rao动dong下xia人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv预yu期qi依yi然ran稳wen定ding，A股gu市shi场chang的de反fan应ying也ye已yi钝dun化hua1）美mei债zhai供gong需xu格ge局ju恶e化hua推tui升sheng美mei国guo长chang端duan利li率lv，美mei股gu易yi跌die难nan涨zhang。首shou先xian，最zui新xin的de议yi息xi会hui议yi上shang美mei联lian储chu维wei持chi利li率lv不bu变bian，符fu合he市shi场chang预yu期qi，鲍bao威wei尔er讲jiang话hua总zong体ti中zhong性xing，注zhu重zhong平ping衡heng市shi场chang预yu期qi，且qie年nian内nei加jia息xi终zhong点dian利li率lv仍reng为wei5.6%，但dan相xiang比bi6月yue议yi息xi会hui议yi上shang调tiao了le明ming后hou年nian利li率lv目mu标biao水shui平ping，表biao明ming利li率lv将jiang在zai高gao位wei停ting留liu更geng长chang时shi间jian。其qi次ci，我wo们men维wei持chi此ci前qian判pan断duan，美mei联lian储chu后hou续xu行xing为wei依yi然ran高gao度du依yi赖lai经jing济ji数shu据ju，11月yue不bu加jia息xi的de概gai率lv较jiao大da，但dan首shou次ci降jiang息xi或huo延yan后hou至zhi明ming年nian下xia半ban年nian。再zai次ci，主zhu要yao受shou供gong需xu格ge局ju恶e化hua的de影ying响xiang，本ben周zhou内nei10年nian期qi美mei债zhai收shou益yi率lv上shang行xing至zhi4.44%，美mei债zhai大da量liang发fa行xing叠die加jia美mei联lian储chu依yi旧jiu激ji进jin的de缩suo表biao，美mei债zhai供gong大da于yu求qiu难nan缓huan解jie，预yu计ji年nian内nei10年nian期qi美mei债zhai收shou益yi率lv将jiang稳wen定ding在zai4%以yi上shang高gao位wei运yun行xing。最zui后hou，利li率lv高gao位wei压ya制zhi和he美mei股gu高gao度du分fen化hua的de表biao现xian下xia，当dang前qian美mei股gu超chao大da盘pan科ke技ji蓝lan筹chou的de估gu值zhi依yi旧jiu过guo高gao，而er5月yue以yi来lai纳na指zhi的deERP已yi经jing转zhuan负fu，美mei股gu易yi跌die难nan涨zhang，外wai部bu货huo币bi金jin融rong环huan境jing扰rao动dong因yin素su仍reng在zai。2）美mei元yuan指zhi数shu走zou强qiang下xia人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv预yu期qi依yi然ran稳wen定ding，A股gu对dui外wai部bu扰rao动dong反fan应ying已yi钝dun化hua。首shou先xian，央yang行xing7月yue以yi来lai多duo次ci表biao态tai人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv没mei有you偏pian离li基ji本ben面mian，近jin期qi还hai强qiang调tiao需xu更geng加jia关guan注zhu人ren民min币bi对dui一yi篮lan子zi货huo币bi汇hui率lv的de变bian化hua，事shi实shi上shang，截jie至zhi9月yue15日ri，中zhong国guo外wai汇hui交jiao易yi中zhong心xin人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv指zhi数shu报bao98.5，较jiao6月yue末mo升sheng值zhi1.8%。其qi次ci，预yu计ji人ren民min银yin行xing将jiang用yong好hao各ge种zhong工gong具ju，对dui市shi场chang顺shun周zhou期qi、单dan边bian行xing为wei进jin行xing纠jiu偏pian，坚jian决jue防fang范fan汇hui率lv超chao调tiao风feng险xian，从cong前qian期qi调tiao整zheng逆ni周zhou期qi调tiao节jie因yin子zi，到dao调tiao降jiang外wai汇hui存cun款kuan准zhun备bei金jin率lv，都dou释shi放fang出chu监jian管guan积ji极ji维wei护hu汇hui率lv稳wen定ding的de信xin号hao和he决jue心xin。再zai次ci，本ben周zhou美mei元yuan指zhi数shu已yi爬pa升sheng105.6，但dan在zai央yang行xing的de预yu期qi管guan理li下xia，人ren民min币bi贬bian值zhi的de空kong间jian不bu大da，近jin期qi无wu论lun是shi在zai岸an还hai是shi离li岸an人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv，在zai7.3左zuo右you预yu期qi企qi稳wen特te征zheng明ming显xian。最zui后hou，美mei元yuan加jia息xi预yu期qi波bo动dong，美mei债zhai收shou益yi率lv高gao位wei和he美mei股gu回hui调tiao等deng外wai部bu扰rao动dong因yin素su预yu计ji短duan期qi仍reng有you扰rao动dong，但dan人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv预yu期qi已yi稳wen定ding，且qieA股gu的de反fan应ying也ye已yi钝dun化hua。成cheng交jiao量liang快kuai速su萎wei缩suo至zhi年nian内nei低di位wei卖mai盘pan消xiao化hua已yi近jin尾wei声sheng，市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi1）市shi场chang成cheng交jiao持chi续xu缩suo量liang，市shi场chang交jiao投tou与yu估gu值zhi处chu于yu低di位wei。过guo去qu四si周zhou沪hu深shen两liang市shi的de日ri均jun成cheng交jiao额e分fen别bie为wei9445亿yi元yuan、7817亿yi元yuan、7271亿yi元yuan和he6503亿yi元yuan，持chi续xu缩suo量liang的de同tong时shi，在zai本ben周zhou缩suo量liang明ming显xian，其qi日ri均jun成cheng交jiao额e创chuang年nian内nei新xin低di。首shou先xian，国guo庆qing长chang假jia渐jian近jin，长chang假jia前qian缩suo量liang是shi较jiao为wei普pu遍bian的de现xian象xiang，自zi2019年nian以yi来lai，节jie前qian1周zhou相xiang对dui节jie前qian5周zhou的de日ri均jun成cheng交jiao额e下xia降jiang幅fu度du在zai25~45%不bu等deng。其qi次ci，无wu论lun对dui于yu市shi场chang还hai是shi政zheng府fu，前qian期qi政zheng策ce及ji其qi效xiao果guo已yi进jin入ru观guan察cha期qi，截jie至zhi9月yue22日ri收shou盘pan，沪hu深shen300和he中zhong证zheng500的de交jiao易yi热re度du分fen别bie回hui落luo至zhi41度du和he34度du。再zai次ci，各ge类lei卖mai盘pan压ya力li消xiao化hua比bi较jiao充chong分fen，当dang前qian估gu值zhi已yi处chu于yu较jiao低di分fen位wei，沪hu深shen300和he中zhong证zheng500的de动dong态taiP/E处chu于yu2010年nian以yi来lai33%和he24%的de较jiao低di分fen位wei，机ji构gou重zhong仓cang股gu方fang面mian，北bei向xiang资zi金jin和he主zhu动dong型xing公gong募mu前qian100大da重zhong仓cang股gu的de动dong态taiP/E已yi分fen别bie调tiao整zheng到dao12.1X和he14.1X，分fen别bie处chu于yu2010年nian以yi来lai22%和he18%的de较jiao低di分fen位wei。2）卖mai盘pan消xiao化hua接jie近jin尾wei声sheng，场chang内nei外wai资zi金jin保bao持chi观guan望wang，市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi。首shou先xian，根gen据ju中zhong信xin证zheng券quan渠qu道dao调tiao研yan数shu据ju，活huo跃yue私si募mu资zi金jin仓cang位wei依yi然ran处chu于yu66%的de低di位wei，且qie已yi经jing连lian续xu3周zhou变bian化hua不bu大da。其qi次ci，今jin年nian8月yue2日ri至zhi9月yue22日ri，本ben轮lun北bei向xiang资zi金jin净jing流liu出chu额e已yi达da1145亿yi元yuan，超chao过guo此ci前qian任ren何he一yi轮lun大da幅fu流liu出chu，但dan从cong最zui近jin3周zhou数shu据ju来lai看kan，流liu出chu速su度du相xiang比bi8月yue周zhou均jun200亿yi以yi上shang的de净jing流liu出chu已yi明ming显xian放fang缓huan，本ben周zhou北bei向xiang资zi金jin甚shen至zhi已yi转zhuan为wei0.3亿yi元yuan的de净jing流liu入ru；且qie本ben轮lun流liu出chu过guo程cheng中zhong，北bei向xiang卖mai出chu成cheng交jiao占zhan比bi稳wen定ding处chu于yu6~7%的de水shui平ping，并bing不bu是shi市shi场chang资zi金jin流liu出chu的de主zhu要yao贡gong献xian部bu分fen。再zai次ci，两liang融rong成cheng交jiao占zhan比bi小xiao幅fu回hui暖nuan，中zhong枢shu抬tai升sheng至zhi8%，但dan仍reng然ran处chu于yu2016年nian以yi来lai36%的de相xiang对dui低di分fen位wei。最zui后hou，宽kuan基jiETF申shen购gou在zai9月yue初chu出chu现xian波bo动dong，但dan9月yue15日ri以yi来lai已yi重zhong回hui净jing申shen购gou，其qi中zhong成cheng长chang风feng格ge更geng受shou青qing睐lai，9月yue截jie至zhi21日ri，科ke创chuang50ETF和he创chuang业ye板ban指zhiETF的de净jing申shen购gou分fen别bie为wei61亿yi元yuan和he20亿yi元yuan。各ge类lei资zi金jin卖mai盘pan消xiao化hua接jie近jin尾wei声sheng，场chang内nei外wai资zi金jin在zai数shu据ju验yan证zheng期qi保bao持chi观guan望wang，随sui着zhe节jie后hou数shu据ju集ji中zhong披pi露lu，入ru场chang意yi愿yuan将jiang明ming显xian增zeng强qiang，当dang前qian市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi。市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi把ba握wo当dang前qian布bu局ju时shi机ji一yi系xi列lie政zheng策ce合he力li起qi效xiao后hou，后hou续xu政zheng策ce仍reng有you加jia码ma空kong间jian，国guo内nei经jing济ji拐guai点dian逐zhu渐jian明ming确que，并bing将jiang得de到dao数shu据ju不bu断duan验yan证zheng；外wai围wei强qiang美mei元yuan的de扰rao动dong已yi趋qu弱ruo，人ren民min币bi汇hui率lv的de预yu期qi已yi趋qu稳wen，市shi场chang反fan应ying也ye已yi钝dun化hua；市shi场chang成cheng交jiao快kuai速su缩suo量liang预yu示shi着zhe卖mai盘pan消xiao化hua已yi近jin尾wei声sheng，市shi场chang底di部bu正zheng在zai夯hang实shi，长chang假jia前qian后hou是shi重zhong要yao的de布bu局ju时shi点dian。配pei置zhi上shang，建jian议yi依yi次ci沿yan着zhe政zheng策ce催cui化hua受shou益yi、市shi场chang情qing绪xu回hui暖nuan受shou益yi和he基ji本ben面mian拐guai点dian确que立li，坚jian持chi顺shun周zhou期qi、科ke技ji、白bai马ma三san阶jie段duan策ce略lve布bu局ju。第di一yi阶jie段duan，在zai政zheng策ce还hai未wei充chong分fen兑dui现xian之zhi前qian，积ji极ji布bu局ju直zhi接jie受shou益yi于yu政zheng策ce的de顺shun周zhou期qi行xing业ye，关guan注zhu城cheng中zhong村cun改gai造zao为wei物wu业ye管guan理li、家jia居ju、消xiao费fei建jian材cai带dai来lai十shi年nian维wei度du的de长chang期qi成cheng长chang机ji遇yu，化hua债zhai推tui动dong的de银yin行xing和he保bao险xian的de重zhong估gu，以yi及ji煤mei炭tan、有you色se、化hua工gong等deng周zhou期qi性xing行xing业ye。第di二er阶jie段duan，政zheng策ce落luo地di带dai动dong市shi场chang情qing绪xu恢hui复fu之zhi后hou，积ji极ji布bu局ju前qian期qi跌die幅fu较jiao大da的de科ke技ji行xing业ye，自zi主zhu可ke控kong方fang向xiang建jian议yi密mi切qie关guan注zhu半ban导dao体ti、AI国guo产chan化hua、信xin创chuang的de事shi件jian催cui化hua，困kun境jing反fan转zhuan方fang向xiang关guan注zhu新xin能neng源yuan车che和he零ling部bu件jian、消xiao费fei电dian子zi的de产chan品pin创chuang新xin和he订ding单dan改gai善shan进jin展zhan。第di三san阶jie段duan，随sui着zhe实shi体ti经jing济ji进jin入ru稳wen态tai复fu苏su区qu间jian并bing且qie外wai资zi抛pao售shou进jin入ru尾wei声sheng后hou，外wai资zi重zhong仓cang板ban块kuai有you望wang迎ying来lai业ye绩ji和he估gu值zhi的de双shuang重zhong拐guai点dian，典dian型xing代dai表biao包bao括kuo新xin能neng源yuan、互hu联lian网wang、消xiao费fei和he医yi药yao当dang中zhong的de白bai马ma品pin种zhong。风feng险xian因yin素su中zhong美mei科ke技ji、贸mao易yi、金jin融rong领ling域yu摩mo擦ca加jia剧ju；国guo内nei政zheng策ce及ji经jing济ji复fu苏su进jin度du不bu及ji预yu期qi；海hai内nei外wai宏hong观guan流liu动dong性xing超chao预yu期qi收shou紧jin；俄e乌wu冲chong突tu进jin一yi步bu升sheng级ji。 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